谭灵芝;

• 1:重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心

摘要(Abstract)：

基于中长期和短期两个角度,借助非对称协整模型,分析气候减缓资金与农户增收之间的相互关系。格兰杰因果关系表明:短期内减缓资金的投入对农户增收的影响是单向的。非对称协整检验的结果发现:同样大小但方向相反的减缓投入冲击对农户收入影响增幅不同,这种非对称性主要源自减缓资金可有效降低因气候变化而引致的收入波动,对农户增收产生长期效应。而气候变化影响的长期性、减缓项目可能带来农户收益的不确定性和个体的有限理性等是引起短期内农户收入由升到降的主要原因。短期和长期的研究结果说明:长期内,政府仍应加大减缓投入规模,但短期仍需通过增加一些辅助措施,最大限度减少政策变动对农户收入的影响、提高农户的参与度。

关键词(KeyWords)： 减缓资金;农户增收;非对称性

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金重大项目(13&ZD156);; 国家自然科学基金项目(71263049);; 教育部人文社科青年项目(10YJC790250)

作者(Authors): 谭灵芝;

DOI: 10.16195/j.cnki.cn36-1328/f.2015.01.007

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• 1气候确切定义和治理机制在国际社会仍然处于讨论、探索和演变之中,其概念和范围界定多来自国际组织,如《联合国气候变化框架公约》定义是指帮助发展中国家应对气候变化影响的资金。这些资金必须是相对于官方发展援助而言“额外”的资金,并覆盖相对于常规情景下发展成本的、减缓或者适应气候变化的“增量成本”。气候政策行动(Climate Policy Initiative,CPI)认为发达国家和发展中国家为应对气候变化项目所投入的成本被广义地称作气候资金。结合《公约》和扩大的气候融资定义,考虑到中国在应对气候变化上采取的一些实际行动,本文所讨论的减缓投资界定为应用于减缓项目并直接产生减缓成果的资金。其中农业部分减缓气候变化的领域主要来自于政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)2007年的工作报告,但不完全限于工作报告中所列各项活动和目的。
• 1为了保证结论的稳健性,本文也分别采取KPS和PP方法进行单位根检验,结果同样表明各个变量的一阶差分都是平稳数列。有兴趣的读者可向作者索取完整的检验结果。